Premier League has a very slim chance of claiming a bonus spot after disappointing Champions League and Europa League results in April; Germany are heavy favourites to secure the extra place
Tuesday 30 April 2024 23:41, UK
Borussia Dortmund can seal the extra Champions League spot for the Bundesliga by beating Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday evening.
Italy has secured one of the two extra berths already with Germany almost certain to claim the other after English clubs Arsenal, Manchester City, West Ham and Liverpool all crashed out of Europe in April with only Aston Villa, who beat Lille on penalties to reach the Europa Conference League semi-finals, remaining.
England's poor performance this season has left them third in the coefficient table on 17.375 points behind Germany (18.071 points) and Italy (19.428 points) - with the top two nations given an extra spot.
France, in fourth, on 16.083 points could still make the top two but PSG and Marseille would need to win the Champions League and Europa League respectively.
A win is worth two points, a draw one and there are also bonus points for reaching certain stages of competitions.
Even if Villa were to beat Olympiakos in both legs of their semi-finals and then defeat Fiorentina or Club Brugge in the ECL final, England need the remaining German teams - Bayern Munich, Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen - to lose all their remaining games to overtake Germany.
Bayern avoided defeat to Real Madrid in their Champions League semi-final first leg on Tuesday evening, which means Dortmund can clinch the extra spot with a win against PSG.
Leverkusen face Roma in the Europa League semi-finals on Thursday but should Dortmund lose, a victory for the Bundesliga champions wouldn't be enough to rubber-stamp Germany in the top two because France could still overtake them, although that is unlikely.
Italy could end up with six teams competing at European football's top table next season. That would occur if Atalanta, who are sixth in Serie A, remain outside of the top five and win the Europa League.
England has finished in the top two of the coefficient table in six of the last seven seasons but the Premier League currently has their lowest coefficient total since 2016/17 - and it would have been an even lower but for the introduction of the Europa Conference League in 2021/22.
Taking the total number of teams from 32 to 36 in the Champions League, the biggest change will see a transformation from the traditional group stage to a single league phase including all participating teams.
Every club will now be guaranteed a minimum of eight league-stage games against eight different opponents (four home games, four away) rather than the previous six matches against three teams, played on a home-and-away basis.
The top eight sides in the league will qualify automatically for the knockout stage, while the teams finishing in ninth to 24th place will compete in a two-legged play-off to secure their path to the last 16 of the competition.
Previously in 2005, when Liverpool won the Champions League but finished outside the top four, the Premier League was granted five potential Champions League berths, with the caveat of having to go through qualifiers.
During the 2015/16 season, Spain became the first association to have five teams in the Champions League group stage after Sevilla lifted the Europa League, despite finishing outside the top four in LaLiga the previous campaign, while Valencia came through the play-off round.
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