Burnley 1 Newcastle 4 – can Eddie Howe’s side finish fifth? Isak and Wilson milestones

Newcastle United are closing in on qualification for European football next season and a surprise fifth-place finish can’t be ruled out after they thrashed Burnley 4-1 at Turf Moor.

Callum Wilson, Sean Longstaff and Bruno Guimaraes all scored in the first half. Alexander Isak added the fourth in the second, soon after missing a penalty. Burnley got one back late on through Dara O’Shea but their hopes of avoiding relegation were significantly dented by a free-flowing Newcastle side.

Here The Athletic’s Chris Waugh and George Caulkin analyse the game.

Could Newcastle finish fifth?

If Chelsea’s victory over Tottenham Hotspur on Thursday had increased the nerves on Tyneside about Newcastle’s late-season European charge, then this really was the perfect tonic. In fact, those inside the club who have privately insisted that fifth remains a target are perhaps looking, if not quite prophetic, then at least canny.

Chelsea in eighth and Manchester United in seventh are five and two points behind Howe’s side respectively, albeit both hold a game in hand, with vastly inferior goal differences to Newcastle’s 22.

Spurs, meanwhile, are only four points ahead in that fifth place and, while they have a game in hand on Newcastle, they have lost their past three matches convincingly and still have Liverpool and Manchester City to play.

With a trip to Old Trafford still to come, Newcastle’s European fate is in their own hands, and if they do finish in the top six, they will be guaranteed qualification for a continental competition next season.

It is increasingly appearing a case of which of the Europa League or Conference League it will be for Howe’s team, rather than if they will be back touring the continent and, given the challenges they have faced throughout 2023-24, that would represent some achievement.

How good were Isak and Wilson as a duo?

Isak and Wilson began a match together for the first time since last May, when a 0-0 draw with Leicester City in the final home game of the season was good enough to secure Champions League football. The wait for a reprise has been interminable, but when it came it helped Newcastle take a mighty step towards a European return on what proved a big day for both.

This was more a proper front-two rather than Isak drifting wide. Initially, the Swede struggled to make an impact today, taking 14 minutes to get his first touch, but he was involved in the first goal, drawing an instinctive save from Arijanet Muric with Wilson following up.

That was Wilson’s 47th in the league for Newcastle, lifting him beyond Peter Beardsley into outright second place in the list of the club’s record Premier League scorers. He now trails only Alan Shearer…. by a mere 101 goals. This was just Wilson’s second start of 2024; he has nine league goals this season, the same as the number of games he has started.

Isak celebrates scoring soon after missing a penalty (Stu Forster/Getty Images)

Isak, meanwhile, got to the 20 league goals milestone, the first Newcastle player to have done so since Shearer 20 years ago. On the way, he failed from the penalty spot for the first time as a Newcastle player, but that hardly mattered. His stats are phenomenal. Only Erling Haaland has scored more in the league this season.

Whether Isak and Wilson is a natural partnership is a moot point; Newcastle have certainly missed the latter during an injury-ravaged campaign. Burnley would love to miss him; Wilson has scored six times in his past five games against them.

Could he yet make a late run for England’s European Championship squad? Gareth Southgate was at Turf Moor today…

Why did Howe go 4-4-2 for his 100th league game?

A 100th Premier League match in charge of Newcastle for Howe, an impressive 49th win, and yet still the head coach is finding ways to innovate and surprise his opponents.

On this occasion, it was a case of back to the future, as he deployed what was essentially a traditional 4-4-2 system. That is something Howe used regularly throughout his time at previous club Bournemouth and early on as Newcastle’s head coach, but he has rarely done so in recent seasons.

Earlier this season, some Newcastle supporters questioned Howe’s tactical flexibility, with the suggestion that he was wedded to his preferred 4-3-3 setup. However, since the turn of the year he has deployed a back three and a back five, and delivered several bespoke game plans tailored both to the opposition and his own personnel.

The 4-4-2 against Burnley today exploited the defensive weakness of Vincent Kompany’s side out wide, with Newcastle regularly getting to the byline and cutting balls back via their wingers, with Anthony Gordon and Jacob Murphy (two) both getting assists.

Despite having only one fit senior centre-back in Dan Burn, Howe’s makeshift back five, counting deputy goalkeeper Martin Dubravka and featuring Emil Krafth in the middle of the defence, equipped themselves well.

With Joelinton and Miguel Almiron returning from injuries off the bench, as well as Elliot Anderson and Harvey Barnes appearing after their own recent absences, Howe finally has a depth of options to choose from and further tactical setups may be deployed in the season’s remaining three games.

What did Eddie Howe say?

On Callum Wilson: “Write Callum off at your peril, for sure. He comes back time and time again and is a very motivated player he wants to do his best in every moment. I have managed him for a long time and mentality wise I would not swap him. When he has a focus and a goal he will go for it. Of course, I want him at the club next season or course. I will do everything I can to make that happen.”

On where Newcastle can finish: “I’ve said from a long time ago we were determined to give our all to finish as high as possible. With ten games to go we tried to reset our targets and since the international break we’ve seen a big improvement in our performances and we need to keep that going into the last three games.“

What next for Newcastle?

Saturday, May 11: Brighton & Hove Albion (H), Premier League, 3pm BST, 10am ET

Since Brighton’s promotion to the Premier League in 2017, these two sides have faced off on 13 occasions in the top division — with Newcastle only winning twice. But the best omen for Newcastle is that those wins have come under Eddie Howe in the past two seasons — and both were at St James’ Park. The standout was undoubtedly the 4-1 victory last May, which saw Burn score against his former club.