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Why Arsenal's blunt away attack is as big a problem as their defence
Arsenal are one point from the top four, on course for a points total in the early 70s and have a Europa League semi-final to look forward to. From a bird's-eye view Unai Emery's first season has gone more or less to expectations, discounting those of the wildly optimistic or merchants of doom.
If the destination is predictable, the journey has been anything but. Any new coach would have had designs on reducing Arsenal's goals against column and improving their dismal away record, two low bars to clear given Arsenal won four of 19 league games on the road and shipped 51 goals in Arsene Wenger's final season.
Surprisingly, Emery has done neither (to any significant extent). The dispiriting away results have continued, the most recent of which a 3-1 loss at Wolves, while Arsenal have conceded 46 league goals. Where Arsenal have tangibly improved is the competitiveness and intensity of their performances against Big Six rivals - mostly at the Emirates - recording home league wins over Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham for the first time in a single campaign since 2001/2.
That possibly reveals where Emery's strengths as a coach lie. Like the famous duelling banjo scene in Deliverance, Emery seems to revel in the opposition manager setting the tune and taking his cue from there. Big Six opponents (United excepted) have very distinctive styles of play, and that seems to narrow Emery's focus on a clear plan. When Arsenal are required to impose their attacking talent on vanilla mid-table teams the picture becomes slightly blurred, and this was in evidence at Molineux.
Arsenal enjoyed a safe and sound start, something of a pattern in their away day lows. Before Ruben Neves stood over the free-kick that gave Wolves the lead in the 28th minute, the home side had mustered just two shots. Neither was on target and one was from distance. They had completed just 56 passes and only 10 in their attacking third. In short, Arsenal were under no pressure whatsoever.
Much went wrong thereafter that could command a separate article, and attention inevitably turned to the goals Arsenal conceded. However, there is a strong argument that Arsenal's attack failing to turn this comfortable opening period into chances and goals put Arsenal in peril. They too did not register a shot on target in the first 27 minutes, despite racking up 200 passes and 67 in the attacking third.
It was the same story at Brighton, West Ham, BATE Borisov and Rennes, where Arsenal failed to fully capitalise on their stronger periods early on. Minimum reward at one end is inviting maximum punishment at the other. Arsenal have scored three goals or more in an away league game just twice this season: at Cardiff and Fulham. In the 2016/17 campaign, an Alexis Sanchez-led Arsenal did so seven times and the season before that they did so five times.
Conventional wisdom states that Arsenal's defensive frailties are exposed away from home. However, relative to the rest of the Premier League, their Expected Goals conceded figure is actually better away than at the Emirates. Both are quite average numbers, but Arsenal's xG against at home is 21.66, which is 11th in the 'league'. Away, their xG against 25.84 has them ninth in the league. As you would expect, every team's raw xG against total is higher away than at home apart from Manchester City, curiously.
Relatively, it is in attack where Arsenal are stalling on their travels. Their xG total of 32.27 at home puts them a comfortable third in the division behind only Man City and Liverpool, and like Liverpool they are outperforming this figure considerably. However, their xG total of 22.62 away puts them eighth, marginally ahead of Southampton.
Separating correlation and causation is difficult, and it could be that Arsenal's timid away attack is a symptom of another problem. It could be argued that Emery's compensations for Arsenal's untrustworthy or aged defenders are restricting the attack. Or it could be a function of Arsenal's approach under his coaching.
As noted in this article, Arsenal are very shot-shy. Their most prominent attacking midfielders, particularly with Aaron Ramsey injured and soon to be on his way to Italy, are Mesut Ozil, Alex Iwobi and Henrikh Mkhitaryan. All have their respective qualities but none are consistent goalscorers or capable of devilish moments of individualism. They are, for the most part, link players who pass and move and stitch things together but seldom provide the exclamation point at the end of the move.
That puts a lot of pressure on Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and frequently only one of them starts away from home. Ozil, Iwobi and Mkhitaryan's main role is to combine and slip in Arsenal's over-lapping full-backs or wing-backs, but they too are more circumspect away as Emery guards against the counter. Or else he picks the more static Nacho Monreal and Shkodran Mustafi at full-back in an effort to sure things up.
Finding players on the over-lap for cut-backs is quite an intricate attacking strategy, and perhaps Arsenal get enough goes at it in an average game at the Emirates for it to eventually pay dividends. Away from home, a touch more force and directness is required. A cutting contrast is with Tottenham's Heung-min Son and Christian Eriksen, who along with Harry Kane fire off shots from all angles. Spurs possibly have too many shots from improbable distances, but it would do Arsenal no harm to look for a happy medium. With the exception of Iwobi, a lack of dribblers who can beat players in one-on-ones is another problem.
The best away teams often strike in devastating flashes, winning the game in moments even when they are not dominating possession and territory. The very threat of this makes opponents step back and sit in because they are worried about being ripped to shreds, and that is half the battle won. There is a well-worn tale, possibly apocryphal, of managers telling their team to avoid putting corners in the box against Arsenal's early-2000s teams such was their fear of a possible counter-attack.
Restoring that long-lost trepidation is a monumental job, but in the short-term Arsenal stand little chance of grinding their way through the away-day mess. They might have to shoot their way out.